The Bank of Canada’s most favored measures of core inflation are likely to slow in July for the first time in 10 months as base effects work in their favor, a milestone that could sway the bank to leave rates on hold at its next policy decision.
Analysis: Is Canadian core inflation about to crack? July data could offer hope
The central bank raised its benchmark rate in June after a five month pause and tightened further this month, lifting it to a 22-year high of 5%, concerned about the persistence of underlying price pressures. The BoC, which will release minutes from its July meeting on Wednesday, has said it doesn’t want to tighten more than is needed. Money markets see a 25% chance of a September hike and are pricing in a 75% chance of a move by the end of the year.